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Esto me lo Envio Efrain Ruiz por correo, quisiera compartirlo con ustedes, no se si este bien, porque seguro lo extrajo del Blog de Bill James y ese blog es pago, pero esta muy bueno para no compartirlo con ustedes, es algo que amablemente el quizo compartir conmigo, y yo quiero que ustedes lean tambien:
Wins, Twins and Tipping
By Bill James
Wins
So Félix Hernández of Puget Sound has now actually won the Cy Young Award, which means that it is time to revise my Cy Young formula; the voters are no longer cowering in the corner in fear of the Won-Lost record and the wrath of Murray Chass. Chass writes that “the development, I believe, is directly related to the growing influence of the new-fangled statistics,” which isn’t exactly right but is as close as an old-fangled writer is likely to get. There is no “new statistic” that is very relevant to this debate; rather, there is a re-evaluation of the old statistics, provoked by research. Sportswriters of 50 years ago truly believed that a pitcher’s won-lost record was the best indicator of his value, which was a very reasonable thing to believe until research demonstrated that it was not true. One doesn’t reasonably anticipate that people in mid-life will re-order their thinking to accommodate what younger people have figured out.
There were two false assumptions here: one, that run support would generally even out over the course of a season, and two, that good pitchers had an ability to pitch to the score, and thus an ability to WIN that was distinguishable from their ability to prevent runs from scoring. Fifty years ago, young baseball fans were taught that these things were true. We now have actual data about run support, which makes it no longer germane whether run support generally evens out or doesn’t; the facts about the specific case are more compelling than generalizations about the normal case, whether good generalizations or bad. In the specific case, Félix Hernández made 34 starts, in which games his team scored 104 runs. CC Sabathia made 34 starts, in which his team scored 193 runs. To hold Hernandez personally responsible for this 89-run differential seems a bit like holding the beat cop responsible because the bank was robbed on his watch.
Whether pitchers have an ability to pitch to the score—that is, an ability to win games 2-1 and 7-6—remains a debatable point at the margins. A year ago, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young Apple, I argued that Félix Hernández may actually have deserved it because he had done a better job of pitching to the score. I wouldn’t (and didn’t) argue that this was an ability, merely that it was something that had happened, and from which his team had derived benefit. We know now that if pitchers have an ability to pitch to the score, that the trait is transient and unreliable, that it is more of a butterfly than a mule.
We used to treat the pitcher’s won-lost record as his number one statistic, his ERA as number two. That has changed not because of new-fangled anything, but because of research. We know better now.
I gather that my name has been bruited about a good deal in this debate, and here are a couple of questions from the “Hey, Bill” file:
With Félix Hernández winning the Cy Young Award, there will be some media coverage portraying you as a "victor" in the war of old school vs. new school. I know you have a sensible policy of ignoring such hype, but I also believe that if you had remained a night watchman, Felix wouldn't have won. Hope you can take a moment to appreciate that your work really has impacted baseball history. –Jeff
Bill, Would you consider Félix Hernández winning the Cy Young award as a sign that sabermetrics finally reached the "mainstream" ? --Anonymous
And so, after all these years, I am still a dividing line between the old ways and the new? Well, if there is to be a war between reason and tradition, between research and habit, I am happy to be counted on the side of reason, whether as an officer or a foot soldier. But the day will never come when it will be a good idea to personalize knowledge, or to claim the victories of others as my own.
I was very afraid that, at the end of this, I was going to have to argue that Sabathia should have won after all. CC Sabathia is a pretty good pitcher, and I see it as a close race between the two of them. What probably didn’t get enough attention here was one of them new-fangled nummers, Park Effects. Félix Hernández had a 2.27 ERA, Sabathia an ERA of 3.18, but that difference is mostly due to the parks they pitched in, and also, Hernandez allowed nine moreun-earned runs than did Sabathia. If we hold the pitcher 50% responsible for the un-earned runs, that narrows the margin a little more.
Not quite enough; I think Felix really was better, and I think he deserved to win. OK, you got me; here are my new-fangled nummers. Pitching half his innings in Seattle, with a Park Factor of 0.81, an average pitcher could expect to allow 4.07 runs per nine innings, and a replacement level pitcher could be expected to allow 5.29 runs per nine innings. Holding Hernandez 50% responsible for the un-earned runs, Hernandez was 75 runs better than a replacement-level pitcher.
An average pitcher in New Yankee, on the other hand, could have been expected to allow 4.82 runs per nine innings, and a replacement level pitcher 6.26, assuming the replacement level pitcher is 30% below average. Park Factor of 1.18. Sabathia was 77 runs better than a replacement level pitcher.
On the level of runs saved, then, Sabathia was +77, Hernandez +75. However, since Sabathia pitched in a higher-run environment, each run had less impact in terms of wins. Sabathia was probably about 8 games better than a replacement-level pitcher (8.03), whereas Hernandez was more than 9 games better (9.24). By my math.
So Felix deserves the award that he will receive next spring, perhaps on opening day, and what should he say that day? Should he say, “I would like to thank my manager, my coaches, my teammates and of course my parents, but also I would like to take a moment to thank Pete Palmer for this award, and Tom Tango, and Rob Neyer, and Keith Woolner and Eddie Epstein and Craig Wright, and all the others who have worked so hard for so long to demonstrate that there are good pitchers on teams that struggle to score runs.”
No, that’s not it. Here’s what he should say, “I appreciate this award, and I accept it on behalf of my family, my teammates and my organization, but I accept it as well on behalf of Mike Norris in 1980, of Dave Stieb in 1983, and Jim Bunning in 1960, and Bert Blyleven in 1973, and all the other pitchers over the years who were deprived of the recognition that was due to them because sportswriters confused what was done by the individual with what was done by the team. Your time has come; we no longer live in the darkness of the past, and the shadows now are lifting from your memories.”
Wins, Twins and Tipping
By Bill James
Wins
So Félix Hernández of Puget Sound has now actually won the Cy Young Award, which means that it is time to revise my Cy Young formula; the voters are no longer cowering in the corner in fear of the Won-Lost record and the wrath of Murray Chass. Chass writes that “the development, I believe, is directly related to the growing influence of the new-fangled statistics,” which isn’t exactly right but is as close as an old-fangled writer is likely to get. There is no “new statistic” that is very relevant to this debate; rather, there is a re-evaluation of the old statistics, provoked by research. Sportswriters of 50 years ago truly believed that a pitcher’s won-lost record was the best indicator of his value, which was a very reasonable thing to believe until research demonstrated that it was not true. One doesn’t reasonably anticipate that people in mid-life will re-order their thinking to accommodate what younger people have figured out.
There were two false assumptions here: one, that run support would generally even out over the course of a season, and two, that good pitchers had an ability to pitch to the score, and thus an ability to WIN that was distinguishable from their ability to prevent runs from scoring. Fifty years ago, young baseball fans were taught that these things were true. We now have actual data about run support, which makes it no longer germane whether run support generally evens out or doesn’t; the facts about the specific case are more compelling than generalizations about the normal case, whether good generalizations or bad. In the specific case, Félix Hernández made 34 starts, in which games his team scored 104 runs. CC Sabathia made 34 starts, in which his team scored 193 runs. To hold Hernandez personally responsible for this 89-run differential seems a bit like holding the beat cop responsible because the bank was robbed on his watch.
Whether pitchers have an ability to pitch to the score—that is, an ability to win games 2-1 and 7-6—remains a debatable point at the margins. A year ago, when Zack Greinke won the Cy Young Apple, I argued that Félix Hernández may actually have deserved it because he had done a better job of pitching to the score. I wouldn’t (and didn’t) argue that this was an ability, merely that it was something that had happened, and from which his team had derived benefit. We know now that if pitchers have an ability to pitch to the score, that the trait is transient and unreliable, that it is more of a butterfly than a mule.
We used to treat the pitcher’s won-lost record as his number one statistic, his ERA as number two. That has changed not because of new-fangled anything, but because of research. We know better now.
I gather that my name has been bruited about a good deal in this debate, and here are a couple of questions from the “Hey, Bill” file:
With Félix Hernández winning the Cy Young Award, there will be some media coverage portraying you as a "victor" in the war of old school vs. new school. I know you have a sensible policy of ignoring such hype, but I also believe that if you had remained a night watchman, Felix wouldn't have won. Hope you can take a moment to appreciate that your work really has impacted baseball history. –Jeff
Bill, Would you consider Félix Hernández winning the Cy Young award as a sign that sabermetrics finally reached the "mainstream" ? --Anonymous
And so, after all these years, I am still a dividing line between the old ways and the new? Well, if there is to be a war between reason and tradition, between research and habit, I am happy to be counted on the side of reason, whether as an officer or a foot soldier. But the day will never come when it will be a good idea to personalize knowledge, or to claim the victories of others as my own.
I was very afraid that, at the end of this, I was going to have to argue that Sabathia should have won after all. CC Sabathia is a pretty good pitcher, and I see it as a close race between the two of them. What probably didn’t get enough attention here was one of them new-fangled nummers, Park Effects. Félix Hernández had a 2.27 ERA, Sabathia an ERA of 3.18, but that difference is mostly due to the parks they pitched in, and also, Hernandez allowed nine moreun-earned runs than did Sabathia. If we hold the pitcher 50% responsible for the un-earned runs, that narrows the margin a little more.
Not quite enough; I think Felix really was better, and I think he deserved to win. OK, you got me; here are my new-fangled nummers. Pitching half his innings in Seattle, with a Park Factor of 0.81, an average pitcher could expect to allow 4.07 runs per nine innings, and a replacement level pitcher could be expected to allow 5.29 runs per nine innings. Holding Hernandez 50% responsible for the un-earned runs, Hernandez was 75 runs better than a replacement-level pitcher.
An average pitcher in New Yankee, on the other hand, could have been expected to allow 4.82 runs per nine innings, and a replacement level pitcher 6.26, assuming the replacement level pitcher is 30% below average. Park Factor of 1.18. Sabathia was 77 runs better than a replacement level pitcher.
On the level of runs saved, then, Sabathia was +77, Hernandez +75. However, since Sabathia pitched in a higher-run environment, each run had less impact in terms of wins. Sabathia was probably about 8 games better than a replacement-level pitcher (8.03), whereas Hernandez was more than 9 games better (9.24). By my math.
So Felix deserves the award that he will receive next spring, perhaps on opening day, and what should he say that day? Should he say, “I would like to thank my manager, my coaches, my teammates and of course my parents, but also I would like to take a moment to thank Pete Palmer for this award, and Tom Tango, and Rob Neyer, and Keith Woolner and Eddie Epstein and Craig Wright, and all the others who have worked so hard for so long to demonstrate that there are good pitchers on teams that struggle to score runs.”
No, that’s not it. Here’s what he should say, “I appreciate this award, and I accept it on behalf of my family, my teammates and my organization, but I accept it as well on behalf of Mike Norris in 1980, of Dave Stieb in 1983, and Jim Bunning in 1960, and Bert Blyleven in 1973, and all the other pitchers over the years who were deprived of the recognition that was due to them because sportswriters confused what was done by the individual with what was done by the team. Your time has come; we no longer live in the darkness of the past, and the shadows now are lifting from your memories.”
